Bitcoin Above $93k: Why Market Structure Matters More Than Price
Bitcoin Above $93k: Why Market Structure Matters More Than Price
Bitcoin held above $93k through U.S. hours yesterday. For the first time in months.
That’s the real signal. Not the price level itself, but what broke in market behaviour.
Two months ago, we saw $19 billion liquidated in a single session. That wasn’t just another dip. It was structural deleveraging that exposed how thin order books had become.
Spot volumes hit November 2023 levels. Market depth still hasn’t recovered.
So when Bitcoin moves now, it moves on far less liquidity than most people realise. Even modest buying pressure creates outsized reactions. That’s the market we’re in.
“Liquidity remains the constraint. Everything else is commentary.”
What Changed Last Week
Trader positioning flipped. Demand for downside protection dried up across all timeframes. Heavy buying interest emerged around the $100k level for late January.
Some of this is short covering as price rallied, which sets up conditions for momentum if spot continues higher.
“Even modest buying pressure now creates outsized reactions.”
The Venezuela situation adds an interesting variable. Lower oil prices, speculation around Bitcoin reserves entering U.S. strategic holdings (unverified, but part of the narrative), and crypto’s recent correlation with broader risk assets all complicate the picture.
But here’s the pattern that actually broke.
U.S. Sessions Stopped Fading Rallies
For months, U.S. trading sessions consistently reversed every advance. Yesterday and today, that finally changed.
For two consecutive sessions, American hours added to overnight gains instead of fading them.
That matters more than any headline.
The Clarity Act hits Senate markup this month after passing the House with bipartisan support in July. Markets are positioning ahead of that. The Coinbase premium index jumped sharply last week after hitting nine-month lows on 1 January.
U.S. demand is returning.
“U.S. hours adding to gains, not fading them, is the clearest behavioural shift in months.”
What I’m Watching Now
- Whether American hours can finally sustain a move instead of fading it
- Whether ETF flows turn constructive after January rebalancing
- Whether this rally can hold above $90k through this week’s U.S. sessions
The easy narratives about regulatory wins and “crypto’s year” were priced in long ago. What matters now is whether market structure can support a move higher, or whether we’re still working through October’s aftershocks.
Liquidity remains the constraint. Everything else is commentary.
What are you seeing in market behaviour right now? Particularly interested in perspectives from anyone trading the Asia–U.S. session transition.